Modeling Tweet Arrival Times using Log-Gaussian Cox Processes

Michal Lukasik PK Srijith Trevor Cohn Kalina Bontcheva
Abstract Research on modeling time series text corpora has typically focused on predicting what text will come next, but less well studied is predicting when the next text event will occur. In this paper we address the latter case, framed as modeling continuous inter-arrival times under a log-Gaussian Cox process, a form of inhomogeneous Poisson process which captures the varying rate at which the tweets arrive over time. In an application to rumour modeling of tweets surrounding the 2014 Ferguson riots, we show how interarrival times ...